If you run a business anywhere in Victoria with a big roof, a factory in Melbourne’s west, a cool store in Shepparton, a supermarket in Geelong or a shed full of equipment on a farm in the Wimmera, you’ve probably looked at solar at some point and found the numbers didn’t quite work for a system of any real size. There’s a specific reason for that and it’s just changed.
Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has announced an expansion of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES), the federal rebate scheme most people know as “the thing that makes home solar cheap”, to cover systems up to 1 megawatt (1,000kW), up from the old cap of 100kW. For Victorian businesses, this is one of the more significant changes to commercial solar economics in years. Here’s what it actually means, why the old system held businesses back and whether the maths genuinely stacks up.
How the commercial solar rebate actually works
The SRES doesn’t hand you a cheque. What it does is create tradeable certificates, Small-scale Technology Certificates or STCs, based on how much renewable electricity your system is expected to generate over its lifetime (currently calculated through to 2030). Installers typically buy these certificates from you at the time of installation and use them to reduce your invoice, which is why solar quotes already look like they’ve had a rebate applied before you’ve paid anything.
Victorian businesses may also be eligible for additional state-based incentives alongside federal solar certificates. For eligible commercial systems, the Commercial Solar VEECs rebate in Victoria can provide additional savings, with VEEC incentives available for systems between 30kW and 200kW. Eligibility and the applicable certificate pathway depend on the system size.
The catch has always been the 100kW cutoff. Go one watt over that line and the entire system falls out of the scheme, not just the portion above 100kW, all of it. That cliff-edge has shaped a lot of commercial solar decisions across Victoria over the past decade, with businesses either deliberately undersizing systems to stay eligible or going ahead with a larger system and simply missing out on rebate support altogether.
Lifting the cap to 1MW means Victorian businesses can now install systems ten times larger than before and still access the same certificate-based discount that residential solar has enjoyed for
What it’s worth in dollars for a Victorian business
The federal government has published a couple of worked examples that give a sense of scale:
- A 250kW system, roughly what a mid-sized retail store, cold-storage facility or manufacturing site might install, is estimated to save close to $70,000 off the upfront cost.
- An 850kW system, the kind of size you’d see on a large distribution warehouse or big-box retail complex, is estimated to save more than $230,000.
Broadly, the government is describing this as cutting the upfront cost of a commercial system by about 20%. As with any STC-based estimate, the actual rebate value moves with the STC spot price at the time of installation, so treat these figures as a guide rather than a fixed quote. But the direction is clear and it applies the same way whether your site is in metro Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo or regional Victoria more broadly.
These examples show the potential savings at two system sizes. The comparison below provides a broader view of how the higher rebate cap could affect different types of commercial properties and larger solar installations.
Real-World Impact of the Higher Rebate Cap
Under the existing 100kW limit, a small warehouse and a major distribution facility may receive the same maximum upfront benefit of around $26,000. Increasing the threshold to 1MW could provide significantly more support for larger commercial solar projects.
| Property Type | Approximate Roof Area | Potential System Size | Estimated Yearly Bill Savings | Extra Rebate Compared with Current Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Warehouse | 1,050 m² | 150kW | $45,000 per year | $13,000 more |
| Large School Campus | 1,750 m² | 250kW | $75,000 per year | $39,000 more |
| Supermarket or Bulky Goods Store | 3,500 m² | 500kW | $150,000 per year | $104,000 more |
| Logistics or Shopping Centre | 9,000–11,000 m²* | 1,000kW (1MW) | $300,000 per year | $234,000 more |
Figures are limited to a maximum 1MW system and based on the report’s recommendations. These estimates are illustrative and use standard industry assumptions of 1kW per 7m², an approximate rebate of $260 per kW and annual generation of 1,500kWh per kW.
Why commercial solar has lagged behind residential solar for so long
The gap here is stark and it’s a national pattern that Victoria mirrors closely. Australia has around 22 gigawatts of residential rooftop solar installed. Almost 4.5 million homes have panels, but commercial and industrial rooftop solar sits at only about 5.6 gigawatts nationally and most of that is already under the old 100kW threshold. In other words, most of the large-scale rooftop solar opportunity in this country, including a large share of Victoria’s industrial and agricultural roof space, has barely been touched.
Industry estimates put the technical potential of commercial, industrial and agricultural rooftops across Australia at somewhere north of 80 gigawatts. Victoria has no shortage of the flat, structurally-rated, sun-exposed roof space that fits that description: logistics and freight sheds along the Western Ring Road and Princes Freeway corridor, dairy and grain sheds across regional Victoria, manufacturing sites across Melbourne’s north and west. The roofs have been there the whole time. What’s been missing is the rebate support and approval speed to make solar on them financially straightforward.
Two things have kept that potential locked up:
- The rebate gap. Systems over 100kW got none of the STC support that made residential and small commercial solar an easy decision.
- Approval delays. Getting network approval for a larger, grid-connected commercial system has historically been slow, adding time and risk to a project before a single panel goes on the roof.
The government has also flagged that it will push the energy regulator to speed up approvals for commercial and industrial connections, which, if it follows through, addresses the second half of the problem alongside the rebate change.
Is this actually a big deal or just a headline?
Worth applying a bit of scepticism here, as with any policy announcement. A few things worth understanding before assuming the numbers apply directly to your site:
STC prices move with supply and demand. If a large number of businesses across Victoria and the rest of the country rush to install larger systems at once, the increased supply of certificates can push the STC price down over time, reducing the rebate’s value for later movers. Businesses that act earlier in a scheme expansion like this one have typically captured the strongest value.
“Up to 1MW” doesn’t mean every business needs a system anywhere near that size. The right system size for a Victorian business is whatever matches actual daytime electricity consumption at that site. Oversizing a system purely to chase a larger rebate rarely stacks up once export tariffs are weighed against genuine self-consumption savings. A proper site assessment matters more than the headline cap.
Approval speed is the part still to be proven. The rebate change is legislated and concrete; faster network connection approvals depend on the energy regulator and Victorian network businesses actually delivering on that commitment.
None of that changes the core point for Victorian businesses: for any site that was sitting just above the old 100kW line or that has been holding off on a larger system because the economics didn’t work without rebate support, this materially changes the calculation.
The bottom line for Victorian businesses
If your business has meaningful daytime electricity usage and roof space to match, anywhere in Victoria, not just around the major centres, it’s worth getting a proper site assessment done sooner rather than later. STC values tend to be strongest early in a scheme expansion and larger commercial systems generally pay themselves off through reduced electricity bills faster than most business owners expect, rebate aside.
Get in touch with the Winki Energy team for a free, no-obligation battery assessment. 1300 494 654
Winki Energy is a CEC-accredited solar and battery installer servicing businesses across Melbourne and greater Victoria. We design and install commercial solar systems tailored to your site, energy usage and business needs. Contact our team to discuss how the expanded commercial solar rebate may apply to your project.
COMMERCIAL SOLAR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Answers To The Most Common Commercial Solar Questions
What is the new solar incentive Chris Bowen announced and does it affect commercial customers?
Yes. The federal government is expanding the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) from October 1, 2026, to cover commercial, industrial and agricultural rooftop solar systems up 10x to 1 MW, up from the previous 100 kW cap. This means larger businesses, warehouses, schools, factories, cold storage, distribution, storage manufacturing, farms, retail sites and community organisations can now access upfront discounts that were previously only available to small commercial systems.
How much can my business save under the expanded scheme?
The government estimates roughly a 20% reduction in installation costs for eligible systems. As an example, a 250 kW system could see an upfront saving of around $68,000, while an 850 kW system could save around $232,000 on installation. This dramatically improves the ROI on systems and if financed can be cashflow positive from day 1.
Does Winki Energy install systems large enough to qualify for this scheme?
Yes. Winki Energy’s Commercial Solar Solutions and EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) services are built for scalable, large-format rooftop and ground-mount systems, including projects like our 759 kWp installation for CEP.Energy, well within the new 1 MW eligibility window.
When does the expanded scheme start and should I wait to install?
The scheme starts October 1, 2026. Because eligibility depends on system size and installation date, it’s worth booking a free site assessment now so your system design, quote and approvals are ready to align with the scheme’s start. Larger projects have a longer lead time so get in quick to access the rebate as soon as possible.
What size solar system does my business need to maximise the rebate?
It depends on your roof space, energy usage and load profile. Winki Energy’s Feasibility Studies and Consultation service assesses your site and energy needs to recommend a system size that balances upfront cost, rebate eligibility and long-term ROI.
Will the rebate cover battery storage as well as solar panels?
The SRES expansion specifically targets rooftop solar installation costs. Battery storage (BESS) is also supported through separate incentives or commercial financing. The current rebate is for up to 50kWh of Bess with up to 100kWh being installed. Winki Energy’s Commercial Battery Solutions (BESS) team can walk you through what’s currently available for storage alongside your solar rebate.
How much could a mid-size business save annually on electricity bills?
Government modelling suggests a 250 kW system could generate about 345 MWh of electricity per year, saving roughly $50,000 annually on energy costs. Larger 850 kW systems could generate around 1,173 MWh annually, saving approximately $175,000 a year.
My business has struggled to get network approval for solar in the past. Has that changed?
The government has asked the Australian Energy Market Commission to require faster, more efficient network approvals for commercial and industrial solar connections. Winki Energy’s in-house Electrical Infrastructure and Injection Testing Services teams manage the compliance and grid-connection process for you, so approval delays are minimised regardless of when the rule change takes effect.
What's included in Winki Energy's commercial solar process?
Our process covers four stages: a free site assessment, in-house system design and installation by SAA-accredited installers, performance optimisation and ongoing support and maintenance, all managed by one team from quote to commissioning.
Does Winki Energy handle everything in-house, or do you subcontract?
Everything is managed in-house (sales, design, engineering, procurement and installation) through our EPC service, so there’s a single point of accountability for your project.
What warranties come with a Winki Energy commercial system?
All installations are backed by a 10-year workmanship warranty, a 10-year inverter warranty and 25-year product and performance warranties on solar panels. We also offer performance guarantees on your energy production.
Can Winki Energy help with EV charging infrastructure for our business too?
Yes. Our EV Charging Infrastructure service is designed for businesses wanting to support fleet vehicles, staff or customers, complementing a commercial solar and battery system to reduce running costs and support sustainability goals.
What happens after installation, is there ongoing maintenance?
Our Commercial Solar Maintenance service includes regular inspections, cleaning and performance checks to keep your system running at peak efficiency and protect your return on investment.
Is Winki Energy accredited to handle large-scale commercial and industrial projects?
Yes. We’re a Solar Victoria and Solar Accreditation Australia approved retailer, an official AGL delivery partner and our systems are designed by SAA-accredited designers and installed by licensed electricians. This is demonstrated through the 30MW of projects we installed last financial year.
How do I find out if my business is eligible and get a quote before the October 1 start?
Book a free site assessment with Winki Energy. Our team will review your roof space, energy usage and site conditions, then provide a straight-up quote so you’re positioned to take advantage of the expanded SRES rebate as soon as it takes effect.
